Team ixGd-Adjusted Expected Goals (2023-01-10)

Individual Expected Goal Differential

There are a few public models that estimate the number of goals a skater is “expected” to have scored. The models do that by calculating the probability of a skater’s shot attempts becoming goals based on certain criteria (such as the location where a shot was taken, type of shot, etc.). In this post I use the expected goals data from Natural Stat Trick.

A skater won’t always score the exact number of goals that he’s “expected” to score, and that’s where Individual Expected Goal Differential (or “ixGd”) comes in. A skater’s ixGd compares his actual goals to his expected goals over a period of time. The calculation is simple:

ixGd = Actual Goals / Expected Goals

When a skater scores more goals than expected his ixGd will be greater than 1.0. When he scores fewer goals than expected his ixGd will be less than 1.0. It can be easier to think of these numbers as percentages: an ixGd of 1.15 is like 115%, and an ixGd of 0.85 is like 85%.

Once a skater’s baseline ixGd is established it can be used to “adjust” a smaller sample of his expected goals to bring them in line with his past performance. This is also a simple calculation:

ixGd-Adjusted Expected Goals = Expected Goals * ixGd

team’s expected goals can be adjusted by simply adjusting the expected goals of the team’s skaters. It’s this team-level adjustment that’s the focus of this post.

Top 20 ixGd-Adjusted Expected Goals (Last 10 Team Games)

Before getting into the team-level analysis, here’s a list of 20 skaters with the highest ixGd-adjusted expected goals in their last 10 team games. Given such a small sample size there are usually some significant over/under producers here. They’re highlighted in the “DIFF” column.

SkaterTeamF/DGPGoalsixGixGdixGd-AdjustedDIFF
Jack HughesN.JF10107.881.20094369.461
Kirill KaprizovMINF1065.181.57980758.18-2
Jason RobertsonDALF1054.571.58760897.26-2
Alex OvechkinWSHF1095.251.35774227.132
Mikko RantanenCOLF1064.901.42650786.99-1
Mark ScheifeleWPGF1054.581.50803466.91-2
David PastrnakBOSF10124.931.38888896.855
Kevin FialaL.AF1065.371.23199006.62-1
Michael BuntingTORF1066.101.04355726.370
Filip ForsbergNSHF1074.431.43369186.351
Leon DraisaitlEDMF814.141.51042526.25-5
Timo MeierS.JF1095.671.08806536.173
Bo HorvatVANF1084.201.44988446.092
Zach HymanEDMF1067.100.85388996.060
Mark StoneVGKF1056.310.96101046.06-1
Chris KreiderNYRF1054.611.25243985.77-1
Brandon HagelT.BF1074.151.34786355.591
J.T. MillerVANF1044.281.29300395.53-2
Matthew TkachukFLAF1064.961.10437085.481
Tage ThompsonBUFF10103.361.60371395.395

Summary Of Team ixGd-Adjusted Expected Goals (Last 10 Games)

Now for the team summary. The table below is sorted based on the highest ixGd-adjusted expected goals during the last 10 games. Once again I’ve highlighted the over/under producers in the “DIFF” column.

A quick note on how I calculated the ixGd data for this post. I used data from the last 150 team games and assigned ixGd values to skaters who played in more than 100 of those games. Any skater who played in the last 10 games but who was not assigned an ixGd value was simply treated as a “1.0” (i.e., he was treated as having expected goals equal to the value calculated by Natural Stat Trick). On average, this assumption likely overstates a team’s ixGd-adjusted expected goals because the skaters who played in only a few games are unlikely to be skilled shooters and probably have an ixGd below “1.0”. Keep this in mind when reviewing the data below.

TeamGoalsxGixGd-AdjustedDIFF
Nashville Predators4739.1942.774
New Jersey Devils3136.5839.30-8
Colorado Avalanche2433.3838.75-15
Dallas Stars3237.8138.68-7
Toronto Maple Leafs4036.3838.372
Minnesota Wild3431.8737.92-4
Tampa Bay Lightning3134.0837.68-7
Seattle Kraken4331.9636.696
Vancouver Canucks3232.5136.34-4
Buffalo Sabres4032.0535.894
Calgary Flames3436.2235.50-2
Carolina Hurricanes3737.0635.352
Washington Capitals4030.1334.705
Edmonton Oilers3232.8934.63-3
San Jose Sharks3033.5734.28-4
Florida Panthers2932.3534.24-5
Boston Bruins4031.7633.986
St Louis Blues3728.4333.913
Pittsburgh Penguins2631.2932.59-7
Ottawa Senators2431.4932.35-8
New York Rangers3830.8632.346
Vegas Golden Knights3133.1431.70-1
Arizona Coyotes2628.2131.38-5
Winnipeg Jets3128.9430.960
Los Angeles Kings3528.9429.795
Detroit Red Wings3028.8829.361
New York Islanders3027.9729.161
Columbus Blue Jackets1825.2927.28-9
Philadelphia Flyers4028.5227.2613
Anaheim Ducks2025.2826.99-7
Montreal Canadiens2023.4324.83-5
Chicago Blackhawks1924.5622.71-4

The above table doesn’t highlight which teams were most affected by the ixGd adjustment. This plot shows the effect of that adjustment for each team.

One thing that’s interesting about this team-level adjustment is that it can show which teams emphasize “skilled” shooting (top of the plot) rather than “volume” shooting (bottom of the plot). Of course, some teams might simply have very few skilled shooters on the roster.

Skater Data For All Teams (Last 10 Team Games)

This is all the data for the last 10 team games arranged by team. Want to see a particular skater’s ixGd? It’s in here. Want to see a team’s best shooters? That’s here too.

TeamSkaterF/DGPGoalsixGixGdixGd-Adjusted
ANATroy TerryF1003.731.14060104.25
ANATrevor ZegrasF1022.531.32913613.36
ANAMason McTavishF1052.911.00000002.91
ANAAdam HenriqueF1032.181.09824872.39
ANAFrank VatranoF1012.430.97859332.38
ANASam CarrickF1021.361.22950821.67
ANARyan StromeF1031.441.16009281.67
ANAMax ComtoisF1001.381.02156641.41
ANABrett LeasonF1001.351.00000001.35
ANACam FowlerD1010.831.31904371.09
ANAJohn KlingbergD1021.200.88195391.06
ANAJakob SilfverbergF1011.120.68571430.77
ANASimon BenoitD1000.681.00000000.68
ANAJustin KirklandF700.501.00000000.50
ANAJayson MegnaF1000.391.00000000.39
ANADmitry KulikovD1000.311.16429500.36
ANAUrho VaakanainenD700.341.00000000.34
ANAKevin ShattenkirkD900.500.61680800.31
ANANathan BeaulieuD400.051.00000000.05
ANAColton WhiteD300.051.00000000.05
ARINick SchmaltzF932.891.25906143.64
ARIClayton KellerF1022.501.41052013.53
ARIBarrett HaytonF1022.601.00000002.60
ARINick BjugstadF1032.590.98445602.55
ARINick RitchieF1012.321.10069302.55
ARILawson CrouseF1012.001.20286092.41
ARITravis BoydF1012.191.07728342.36
ARIShayne GostisbehereD1011.181.71646542.03
ARIChristian FischerF1022.200.89766611.97
ARIJakob ChychrunD1021.961.00000001.96
ARIJack McBainF1021.611.00000001.61
ARIMichael CarconeF620.881.00000000.88
ARIJuuso ValimakiD1010.711.00000000.71
ARIJ.J. MoserD1020.711.00000000.71
ARIMatias MaccelliF310.631.00000000.63
ARIJosh BrownD1000.360.94043890.34
ARIPatrik NemethD1000.231.09890110.25
ARITroy StecherD1000.221.00000000.22
ARIZack KassianF900.201.00000000.20
ARILaurent DauphinF200.171.00000000.17
ARIDylan GuentherF100.061.00000000.06
BOSDavid PastrnakF10124.931.38888896.85
BOSPatrice BergeronF1054.470.93359174.17
BOSBrad MarchandF1042.621.38485593.63
BOSJake DeBruskF752.881.15467243.33
BOSCharlie CoyleF1022.120.98360662.09
BOSPavel ZachaF1022.060.94014421.94
BOSTrent FredericF1031.711.08904551.86
BOSTaylor HallF1001.631.13510521.85
BOSDavid KrejciF1021.691.00000001.69
BOSHampus LindholmD1012.130.72411301.54
BOSCraig SmithF911.091.05263161.15
BOSCharlie McAvoyD1000.800.95302930.76
BOSNick FolignoF1010.940.65554230.62
BOSTomas NosekF800.940.63510390.60
BOSMatt GrzelcykD1000.421.21293800.51
BOSBrandon CarloD1010.441.12676060.50
BOSConnor CliftonD1010.550.85714290.47
BOSA.J. GreerF400.201.00000000.20
BOSDerek ForbortD1000.091.92837470.17
BOSChris WagnerF100.051.00000000.05
BOSJakub ZborilD100.001.00000000.00
BUFTage ThompsonF10103.361.60371395.39
BUFJeff SkinnerF843.741.14871794.30
BUFAlex TuchF1054.570.94111324.30
BUFKyle OkposoF943.031.16794203.54
BUFRasmus DahlinD1032.561.35198143.46
BUFDylan CozensF1033.030.83955222.54
BUFCasey MittelstadtF1021.601.12994351.81
BUFZemgus GirgensonsF1011.731.00000001.73
BUFJack QuinnF1001.731.00000001.73
BUFVictor OlofssonF1030.881.57480311.39
BUFPeyton KrebsF1011.221.00000001.22
BUFTyson JostF1021.230.93457941.15
BUFJJ PeterkaF1011.061.00000001.06
BUFMattias SamuelssonD1000.951.00000000.95
BUFOwen PowerD700.681.00000000.68
BUFKale ClagueD1000.311.00000000.31
BUFJacob BrysonD700.150.76628350.11
BUFLawrence PilutD310.091.00000000.09
BUFCasey FitzgeraldD400.051.00000000.05
BUFIlya LyubushkinD700.050.92879260.05
BUFJeremy DaviesD100.021.00000000.02
BUFRasmus AsplundF200.010.87623220.01
BUFVinnie HinostrozaF100.001.00000000.00
CARAndrei SvechnikovF1024.241.02676934.35
CARMartin NecasF1043.981.08991834.34
CARStefan NoesenF833.051.00000003.05
CARSeth JarvisF1003.370.89494163.02
CARSebastian AhoF712.521.02091222.57
CARPaul StastnyF1013.190.77608512.48
CARDerek StepanF1032.001.00000002.00
CARJordan MartinookF1022.140.81447961.74
CARJesperi KotkaniemiF1031.840.94527361.74
CARTeuvo TeravainenF1021.830.94435081.73
CARJordan StaalF1041.500.94681151.42
CARBrady SkjeiD931.071.32802121.42
CARJesper FastF1031.420.85971081.22
CARBrent BurnsD1011.020.86823290.89
CARMax PaciorettyF220.841.00000000.84
CARBrett PesceD1000.940.89365500.84
CARDylan CoghlanD200.541.00000000.54
CARJalen ChatfieldD1020.391.00000000.39
CARJaccob SlavinD1010.680.54907340.37
CARCalvin de HaanD900.410.74850300.31
CARJack DruryF300.091.00000000.09
CBJPatrik LaineF811.941.59053833.09
CBJJack RoslovicF1002.071.35938832.81
CBJGustav NyquistF1022.311.14235502.64
CBJJohnny GaudreauF1011.851.23611982.29
CBJKent JohnsonF1022.041.00000002.04
CBJSean KuralyF1001.930.93724531.81
CBJKirill MarchenkoF1061.641.00000001.64
CBJCarson MeyerF801.341.00000001.34
CBJEmil BemstromF621.231.00000001.23
CBJEric RobinsonF701.400.82644631.16
CBJMathieu OlivierF1001.081.00000001.08
CBJTim BerniD1000.981.00000000.98
CBJLiam FoudyF800.821.00000000.82
CBJVladislav GavrikovD1001.060.72992700.77
CBJBoone JennerF110.700.97309670.68
CBJMarcus BjorkD910.571.00000000.57
CBJAndrew PeekeD810.541.04602510.56
CBJErik GudbransonD1000.381.10935020.42
CBJCole SillingerF700.450.87209300.39
CBJAdam BoqvistD500.361.00000000.36
CBJJake ChristiansenD300.261.00000000.26
CBJYegor ChinakhovF200.221.00000000.22
CBJGavin BayreutherD510.081.00000000.08
CBJJosh DunneF300.041.00000000.04
CGYAndrew MangiapaneF1003.861.24450954.80
CGYTyler ToffoliF1054.031.03116414.16
CGYElias LindholmF1042.831.36068243.85
CGYBlake ColemanF1023.800.80939953.08
CGYDillon DubeF1032.781.06951872.97
CGYNazem KadriF1053.110.92592592.88
CGYMikael BacklundF1023.270.64239832.10
CGYJonathan HuberdeauF1031.821.15252572.10
CGYMilan LucicF1031.880.87946201.65
CGYTrevor LewisF1011.780.87403601.56
CGYAdam RuzickaF1001.131.00000001.13
CGYRasmus AnderssonD1011.410.67733990.96
CGYNoah HanifinD1000.990.93271150.92
CGYNikita ZadorovD1020.751.17785630.88
CGYMacKenzie WeegarD1011.170.72829130.85
CGYBrett RitchieF610.801.00000000.80
CGYMichael StoneD1010.511.00000000.51
CGYChris TanevD900.231.00000000.23
CGYConnor MackeyD100.071.00000000.07
CGYDennis GilbertD100.001.00000000.00
CGYRadim ZohornaF300.001.00000000.00
CHIMax DomiF1022.431.17551682.86
CHIPatrick KaneF832.740.90530952.48
CHITaylor RaddyshF1012.190.99667772.18
CHIAndreas AthanasiouF1021.851.00000001.85
CHIJonathan ToewsF1011.501.10950311.66
CHITyler JohnsonF811.441.00000001.44
CHIJason DickinsonF1001.920.69930071.34
CHISeth JonesD1011.530.64973420.99
CHISam LaffertyF1011.660.59366750.99
CHILukas ReichelF210.971.00000000.97
CHIPhilipp KurashevF1021.290.70999450.92
CHIReese JohnsonF800.911.00000000.91
CHIConnor MurphyD1010.511.34907250.69
CHIColin BlackwellF710.561.12881810.63
CHICaleb JonesD700.551.00000000.55
CHIJake McCabeD1010.501.03806230.52
CHIJujhar KhairaF300.421.00000000.42
CHIMacKenzie EntwistleF410.401.00000000.40
CHIIsaak PhillipsD700.381.00000000.38
CHIIan MitchellD600.201.00000000.20
CHIBrett SeneyF200.121.00000000.12
CHIBoris KatchoukF700.111.00000000.11
CHIJack JohnsonD1000.370.25445290.09
CHIJarred TinordiD100.011.00000000.01
COLMikko RantanenF1064.901.42650786.99
COLCale MakarD1043.151.60599575.06
COLJ.T. CompherF1033.901.16648994.55
COLArtturi LehkonenF1013.460.94882123.28
COLAlex NewhookF1012.361.12233452.65
COLNathan MacKinnonF422.121.13075662.40
COLValeri NichushkinF401.811.17684482.13
COLEvan RodriguesF821.950.99386141.94
COLDevon ToewsD1011.131.38157891.56
COLBen MeyersF1001.521.00000001.52
COLDenis MalginF701.361.00000001.36
COLSamuel GirardD1021.061.25523011.33
COLLogan O’ConnorF1001.470.68965521.01
COLErik JohnsonD1000.640.93240090.60
COLBrad HuntD1010.601.00000000.60
COLKurtis MacDermidD900.471.00000000.47
COLAndrew CoglianoF810.460.75187970.35
COLJacob MacDonaldD700.311.00000000.31
COLMartin KautF600.201.00000000.20
COLDarren HelmF300.230.70093460.16
COLAndreas EnglundD900.151.00000000.15
COLCharles HudonF300.131.00000000.13
COLDryden HuntF100.000.58616650.00
COLJean-Luc FoudyF100.001.00000000.00
DALJason RobertsonF1054.571.58760897.26
DALRoope HintzF1063.981.25531485.00
DALJoe PavelskiF1024.380.94091084.12
DALTyler SeguinF1043.301.09614783.62
DALJamie BennF1033.750.90909093.41
DALMason MarchmentF1003.670.78238192.87
DALWyatt JohnstonF1042.061.00000002.06
DALMiro HeiskanenD1022.260.81145581.83
DALEsa LindellD1021.241.06075221.32
DALFredrik OlofssonF611.061.00000001.06
DALNils LundkvistD1010.921.00000000.92
DALRadek FaksaF1001.760.49285360.87
DALRyan SuterD1000.870.93720710.82
DALJoel KivirantaF1011.160.68912710.80
DALJani HakanpääD1010.581.34770890.78
DALTy DellandreaF1000.761.00000000.76
DALLuke GlendeningF1000.870.63051700.55
DALColin MillerD900.531.01832990.54
DALRiley TufteF300.051.00000000.05
DALJoel HanleyD100.041.00000000.04
DALDenis GurianovF100.000.93940820.00
DETDylan LarkinF932.881.21648463.50
DETMichael RasmussenF1033.900.80437583.14
DETDavid PerronF1032.311.33750713.09
DETDominik KubalikF1022.350.94052562.21
DETOskar SundqvistF1012.161.00000002.16
DETJoe VelenoF1021.711.21527782.08
DETLucas RaymondF1031.601.20923421.93
DETJake WalmanD1021.801.00000001.80
DETAndrew CoppF1001.640.92066071.51
DETElmer SoderblomF831.281.00000001.28
DETFilip HronekD1011.250.96418731.21
DETPius SuterF1011.270.75165360.95
DETAdam ErneF910.860.98814230.85
DETBen ChiarotD1000.671.19435400.80
DETJonatan BerggrenF1020.761.00000000.76
DETMoritz SeiderD1000.830.70312500.58
DETOlli MaattaD910.520.79840320.42
DETJordan OesterleD910.401.00000000.40
DETAustin CzarnikF200.291.00000000.29
DETRobby FabbriF210.281.00000000.28
DETGustav LindstromD200.121.00000000.12
EDMLeon DraisaitlF814.141.51042526.25
EDMZach HymanF1067.100.85388996.06
EDMConnor McDavidF1063.871.35446695.24
EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsF1042.361.01838762.40
EDMKailer YamamotoF1022.030.94589481.92
EDMDarnell NurseD1011.511.14942531.74
EDMDerek RyanF1011.450.96038421.39
EDMDylan HollowayF1011.321.00000001.32
EDMTyson BarrieD1011.081.07526881.16
EDMMattias JanmarkF1021.580.67307691.06
EDMJesse PuljujarviF1021.320.76219511.01
EDMWarren FoegeleF811.400.67589310.95
EDMKlim KostinF1030.951.00000000.95
EDMRyan McLeodF810.831.08063180.90
EDMCody CeciD1000.611.10957000.68
EDMBrett KulakD1000.351.51770660.53
EDMEvan BouchardD1000.391.20210370.47
EDMDevin ShoreF200.161.00000000.16
EDMMarkus NiemelainenD700.161.00000000.16
EDMJames HamblinF200.151.00000000.15
EDMPhilip BrobergD500.131.00000000.13
FLAMatthew TkachukF1064.961.10437085.48
FLACarter VerhaegheF1043.921.31164745.14
FLASam ReinhartF1033.141.10611173.47
FLASam BennettF1013.640.92692393.37
FLAEetu LuostarinenF1022.400.95338982.29
FLAEric StaalF1052.001.00000002.00
FLAAaron EkbladD1021.711.00000001.71
FLABrandon MontourD1001.491.14370961.70
FLAAleksander BarkovF731.111.50741551.67
FLARyan LombergF1001.780.81442701.45
FLAGustav ForslingD1020.901.40350881.26
FLANick CousinsF1011.260.85665331.08
FLAAnton LundellF800.831.00000000.83
FLAGivani SmithF400.591.00000000.59
FLAColin WhiteF800.491.00000000.49
FLAMarc StaalD1000.890.52631580.47
FLAJosh MahuraD1000.441.00000000.44
FLAZac DalpeF500.301.00000000.30
FLARadko GudasD600.260.98870060.26
FLAGrigori DenisenkoF400.161.00000000.16
FLAMatt KierstedD400.061.00000000.06
FLAAnton LevtchiF200.021.00000000.02
FLAAleksi HeponiemiF200.001.00000000.00
L.AKevin FialaF1065.371.23199006.62
L.AViktor ArvidssonF1044.080.95447873.89
L.AAdrian KempeF1052.401.23711342.97
L.AAnze KopitarF1012.571.01449282.61
L.AGabriel VilardiF1032.381.00000002.38
L.AAlex IafalloF1052.560.88360762.26
L.APhillip DanaultF1051.811.15684692.09
L.AQuinton ByfieldF701.561.00000001.56
L.ADrew DoughtyD1011.170.75075080.88
L.ABlake LizotteF1010.811.04347830.85
L.AMatt RoyD1010.710.74487900.53
L.ARasmus KupariF1010.511.00000000.51
L.ASean DurziD1010.490.84033610.41
L.ATrevor MooreF300.540.68337130.37
L.AMikey AndersonD1000.480.74962520.36
L.AArthur KaliyevF100.370.92891760.34
L.ACarl GrundstromF400.301.08974360.33
L.ASean WalkerD910.321.00000000.32
L.AJaret Anderson-DolanF1000.221.00000000.22
L.AAlexander EdlerD900.160.97799510.16
L.ABrendan LemieuxF500.071.00000000.07
L.AJordan SpenceD200.061.00000000.06
MINKirill KaprizovF1065.181.57980758.18
MINMats ZuccarelloF862.781.74971474.86
MINJoel Eriksson EkF1043.920.98663933.87
MINMatt BoldyF1012.991.00000002.99
MINRyan HartmanF942.161.20447382.60
MINFrederick GaudreauF1022.361.05977112.50
MINMarcus FolignoF711.391.52035312.11
MINJared SpurgeonD1031.211.51079141.83
MINSam SteelF1011.561.05820111.65
MINJordan GreenwayF911.960.63383721.24
MINConnor DewarF1011.031.00000001.03
MINMatt DumbaD1010.820.91533180.75
MINCalen AddisonD1010.641.00000000.64
MINSamuel WalkerF310.631.00000000.63
MINMason ShawF800.531.00000000.53
MINJonas BrodinD1000.461.11524160.51
MINRyan ReavesF1000.750.61199510.46
MINJake MiddletonD900.431.00000000.43
MINBrandon DuhaimeF210.431.00000000.43
MINJon MerrillD1000.251.14155250.29
MINAdam BeckmanF200.261.00000000.26
MINAlex GoligoskiD300.130.97087380.13
MTLCole CaufieldF1053.781.41803745.36
MTLNick SuzukiF1002.161.37848372.98
MTLJosh AndersonF1032.500.98065922.45
MTLMike HoffmanF811.431.42725602.04
MTLChristian DvorakF1011.810.98596891.78
MTLKirby DachF1012.230.69021521.54
MTLEvgenii DadonovF601.250.98253281.23
MTLJake EvansF1011.450.83333331.21
MTLMichael PezzettaF710.731.00000000.73
MTLJoel ArmiaF931.200.59299190.71
MTLJonathan DrouinF1000.681.00000000.68
MTLAnthony RichardF710.681.00000000.68
MTLArber XhekajD1010.571.00000000.57
MTLBrendan GallagherF310.551.00000000.55
MTLJoel EdmundsonD1000.461.00000000.46
MTLJuraj SlafkovskyF1000.411.00000000.41
MTLJohnathan KovacevicD900.371.00000000.37
MTLJordan HarrisD1000.321.00000000.32
MTLKaiden GuhleD510.271.00000000.27
MTLChris WidemanD800.191.00000000.19
MTLDavid SavardD400.260.65530800.17
MTLJustin BarronD400.131.00000000.13
N.JJack HughesF10107.881.20094369.46
N.JNico HischierF1055.041.06488365.37
N.JJesper BrattF1053.261.39631614.55
N.JTomas TatarF1024.410.89148483.93
N.JYegor SharangovichF1021.691.29070112.18
N.JErik HaulaF1012.480.85146642.11
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